A Pre-election Opinion Poll Analysis of U.S.A. 2024 Presidential Elections By: Prof. Neelam Mahajan Singh

A Pre-election Opinion Poll Analysis of U.S.A. 2024 Presidential Elections 

By: Prof. Neelam Mahajan Singh 

☆ While Americans go to polls to elect their President; the race for the White House is getting obviously clear, while both Republicans and Democrats in an all out important battleground states.The polls are close, that the margins between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could actually be two or three points better off - enough to win comfortably. There is a compelling case to make for why each may have the edge when it comes to building a coalition of voters in the right places, and then ensuring they actually turn out. This will be a historic election and will change the destiny of Americans. Is there a 'history in the making' with a possibility that a defeated president might be re-elected for the first time in 130 years. The author strongly believes that Donald Tump of the Republican party could win these presidential elections of 2024. Donald Trump is not in power, while Joe Biden of the Democratic party is in power. There could be anti-incumbancy against the Democrats. The economy of USA is the number one issue for voters, and while unemployment is low and the stock market is booming, most Americans say they are struggling with higher prices every day. Inflation has hit levels not seen since the 1970s in the aftermath of the pandemic, giving Trump chances to ask “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” In 2024, voters around the world have several times thrown out the party in power, partly due to the high, post-Covid, cost of living. US voters also seem hungry for change. Only a quarter of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction the country is going in and two-thirds have a poor economic outlook. Kamala Harris tried to be the so-called change candidate, but as vice-president, she's struggled to distance herself from an unpopular President Joe Biden, who seems impervious to bad news. Despite the fallout from 6th January 2021 riot at the US Capitol, a string of indictments and an unprecedented criminal conviction, Trump’s support has remained stable all year at 50% or above. While Democrats and 'Never-Trump' conservatives say he is unfit for office, most Republicans agree when Trump says he’s the victim of a political witch-hunt and a vilification campaign. "All I can say that on Tuesday is going to be a party time. Kamala broke it and I'll fix it," says Donald Trump. All states are important but the media calls seven swing statutes. Reuters has given a lead to Trump. He needs to win over enough of the small slice of 'undecided voters' without a fixed view of him. His warnings on illegal immigration resonate

Beyond the state's economy, elections are often decided by an issue with an emotional pull. Democrats are hopeful that it’s abortion issue will fetch women's votes, while Trump is betting on illegal immigration issue. After encounters at the border hit record levels under Biden, and the influx impacted states far from the border, polls suggest voters trust Trump more on the immigration - and that he’s doing much better with Latinos than in previous elections. 

Trump’s appeal to voters, who feel forgotten and left behind has transformed US politics by turning traditional Democratic constituencies like union workers into Republicans and making the protection of American industry by tariffs almost the norm. If he drives up turnout in rural and suburban parts of swing states this can offset the loss of moderate, college-educated Republicans. The ex-president sees his unpredictability as his strength, however, and points out that no major wars started when he was in the White House. Many Americans are angry, for different reasons, with the US sending billions to Ukraine and Israel - and think America is weaker under Biden. A majority of voters, especially men who Trump has courted through podcasts like Joe Rogan's, see Trump as a stronger leader than Kamala Harris. "Kamala Harris can not because 

she’s not Trump," say Trump supporters. In 2020, he won a record number of votes for a Republican candidate, but was defeated because seven million more Americans turned out to support Biden. Harris is playing up the fear factor about a Trump return. She’s called him a 'fascist' and a threat to democracy, while vowing to move on from drama and conflict. 

A Reuters/Ipsos poll in July indicated that four in five Americans felt the country was spiralling out of control. Democrats were facing near-certain defeat at the point. Republicans have tied her to Biden’s more unpopular policies, Harris has rendered some of their Biden-specific attack lines redundant. The clearest of these is age - polls consistently suggested voters had real concerns about Biden’s fitness for office. Now the race has flipped, and it is Donald Trump who’s vying to come back to White House. She's championed women's rights on abortion and empowerment. In retrospect, this is the first presidential election since the U. S.A.'s Supreme Court overturned 'Roe v Wade' and the constitutional right to an abortion. This time around, 10 states, including the swing state Arizona, will have ballot initiatives asking voters how abortion should be regulated. Donald Trump, for example, holds a huge lead among those who were registered but didn’t vote in 2020, according to a New York Times/Siena poll. According to a recent Financial Times analysis, which also noted that Harris's campaign has spent almost twice as much on advertising. US election unspun will be known in next 48 hours anyway. North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his twice weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. People are not equating Kamala Harris with Hillary Clinton, as she's more grounded. 

The so called decisive states are,About 240 million people are eligible to vote in the 2024 US election, but only a relatively small number of them are likely to decide who becomes the next president. Experts believe there are only a handful of so-called 'swing states' that could plausibly be won by either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump. Seven of these - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - are thought to hold the keys to the White House. Both campaigns have therefore been targeting undecided voters in these states. Are you better off now, than you were four years ago? This is the key word! It may be categorically stated that the 'policy of agrandisement' of President Joe Biden, in Middle-East has not gone well with a common American. It's safely opined that Donald Tump is most likely to be the next President of the United States of America. 

• Prof. Neelam Mahajan Singh • 

(Sr. Journalist, Author, Columnist, Television News Personality, American History expert, ex professor, Solicitor for Human Rights Protection and Philanthropist)

singhnofficial@gmail.com